
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Fixing the Lottery

PFW's top 50 players
The entire list broken down by team.
A few comments from the list:
RB Larry Johnson (5) - Larry Johnson is the 5th best player amongst all positions in the league? Wow. If that really is true, maybe LJ does deserve LT money next year. If the Chiefs really aren't going to pay him and the Packers were going to draft a round 2 running back anyway, wouldn't the rumored move of a 1st and a 3rd or so have made sense for both teams?
Arizona
WR Larry Fitzgerald (20)
WR Anquan Boldin (46) - If they hit with their 1st rounder Levi Brown, it seems like this list next year would include Matt Leinart. That receiving core is just too good.
RB Steven Jackson (6)
CB Champ Bailey (7) - No way. I don't buy for a second that Steven Jackson is a better player than Champ Bailey. While it seems like they do a better job than some of not over-prioritizing skill position players, this is a stretch.
QB Drew Brees (9) - Amazing what a difference a year makes. Phillip Rivers is a good player, but I wonder what would have happened had they moved him instead of letting Brees go. Could you imagine the Chargers last year with Brees as opposed to Rivers and ANOTHER 1st round pick in the mix?
RB Frank Gore (13) - My how quickly we anoint players. I'll bet anyone money he has an ACL in the next two years.
WR Lee Evans (39) - If Lee Evans were on a team with a quarterback, he would be a superstar right now. There are no other WR's in Buf, teams know he is going to go deep and he still catches 6+ long TD's a year. Because of his age, old knee injury and reliance on speed, my guess is that he never gets a chance to get out of Buf because he will want to accept a reasonable contract extension when they offer it.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Ryan Braun

Quick must-read if you are wondering why Graffy and Counsell are manning the hot corner for the Brewers.
R&FSM 1st Annual NBA Lottery Grades
Lottery Grades:
Memphis Grizzlies - Their performance was below sub-par. They had a terrible season and a very strong chance to finish in the top 2, but instead let their fan down. Jerry West got out at the right time.
Grade: F
Boston Celtics - Commissioner Stern doesn't need extra 'rules' to punish tanking teams. He takes care of his business underground in a ruthless manner that sends the message to GM's across the league that you do not F*** with the Stern. Even with all of the vibes that Bill Simmons was trying to bring to the team, Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers let the whole Boston fan base down.
Grade: F
Milwaukee Bucks - Larry Harris had to know going into the lottery that he had no chance - small market team that unexpectedly won the lottery recently and was widely accused of tanking. The biggest surprise was how Harris didn't show the leadership ability to keep the Bucks around that 3rd pick. Senator Kohl will be looking over his shoulder now.
Grade: D-
Atlanta Hawks - While they did not secure the top spot, Billy Knight and Co. did well to retain their higher pick. I can only imagine that one of the tantalizing prospects at the 3/4 will be on their mind.
Grade: B+
Phoenix Suns - Have had a total disaster of a week. While they were focused on the playoffs, Atlanta snuck by them and and captured back their top pick. The Suns go from getting an elite pick in this draft to getting nothing. Could trade Marion/Amare this off season to make up for the managerial failure of losing their top pick.
Grade: F
Seattle SuperSonics - Showed managerial prowess to lead ahead into the 2nd pick. It is not surprising that they were unable to secure the top spot because of all of the energies they expended getting up to the 2nd pick.
Grade: A-
Portland Trailblazers - Clearly made a successful pact with the devil by trading a rack of basketballs for Brandon Roy, landing LaMarcus Aldridge and now out working all of the other GM's in the league to man the top spot in the lottery.
Grade: A
Minnesota Timberwolves - Kevin McHale showed the level of acumen that we are all familiar with - the ability to do just enough to keep his job, Kevin Garnett around.
Grade: C-
Charlotte Bobcats - Burdened with less resources because of the cheap way that Bob Johnson runs his franchise, Bernie Bickerstaff etc. were not able to get out and do the work necessary to take over the top spot in the lottery leaving Charlotte in limbo. Likely, Stern told Jordan to be patient and that he would give Jordan a top pick soon.
Grade: C
Chicago Bulls - Bulls management showed long ago that they are much better at what they do than Isiah Thomas.
Grade: B+
New York Knicks - Their grade seems like it should be worse, but since they did not win the lottery and trade Greg Oden for Eddie Curry, their grade improves slightly. Instead of trading for veterans and including ridiculous pick-swapping clauses in deals, Isiah should trade for late 1st and early 2nd round picks - where he excels.
Grade: C-
R&FSM 1st Annual NBA Lottery Predictions
The Projections:

How about it Mr. Ford?
The Crackpot Mock Lottery
With last years winner out of the lottery the field is wide open. Here is how I see it shaking out.
1. Milwaukee: It's hard to ignore past lottery success, while GM Harris has problems during the regular season he is money in the lottery.
2. Chicago (from NY): Chicago repeats last years lottery performance and nabs the number two spot. This is the trade that just keeps on giving, Isiah Thomas is building a very nice team in Chicago.
3. Memphis: After sliding two slots, Memphis is shocked to find the third pick is still available.
Monday, May 21, 2007
Another Lottery Prediction
1st Pick: - Boston Celtics - High comedy/drama ensues as we are unsure whether the Celtics pick who Ainge wants, who Doc wants or who Bill Simmons wants.
2nd Pick - Memphis Grizzlies - This team is going to be good, soon. The talent might be a little mismatched if they land Oden, though. If they get him, it should be interesting to see whether they decide to slow the ball a bit and use Oden offensively in the post right away or whether they run, let him score on garbage and dunks, get boards and play defense. If they land Durant, then they should blaze up and down the floor.
3rd Pick - Atlanta Hawks - This team seems to have the Center and PG positions taken care of but cannot seem to fill the 3. In honor of that, look for them to "win" the 3rd pick in the lottery and take a 3.
Take that, experts!
Oden

Chad Ford has the break down on Greg Oden. I cannot wait for those lottery balls to get pulled.
"He doesn't want to just be good at this," Schilling says. "He wants to be the best. I see no reason he can't be."
Sunday night, after I described Oden's workout to a respected NBA general manager who stands a pretty good chance at getting the No. 1 pick in Tuesday's lottery, the GM had four words for me:
"I told you so."
He continued, "Oden is not just a big guy. He's a big guy with great athleticism and skill. It's what I've been telling you all year. This guy is a lock as the No. 1 pick.
I gotta have him.
My Fearless Lottery Projection
Well, I'm not chicken. Here's how I see the lottery order ending up:
- Milwaukee Bucks - you have to go by history here. The last time Larry Harris was in this position he scored, and had much greater odds against him.
Greg Oden + Michael Redd? GO MILWAUKEE BUCKEYES!! - Memphis Grizzlies - sometimes you have to go with the safe choice, so I'll stick with the numbers here.
- Charlotte Bobcats - you've got to expect one longshot, and who can deny Michael Jordan? My earlier projection had Atlanta landing here, but that shuts Phoenix out of the lottery. I just can't do that to them after they gave me so much the past few weeks. Message to Suns: draft Corey Brewer!
Remember, you read it here first.
BTW, Sam Smith has a great article about Oden supposedly demanding that the team that drafts him must also somehow acquire Mike Conley! This would be a simple matter if the Hawks happen to land #1, since they also would have #11, but other teams would be in a bind.
The Bucks might be in a good position for this, however. They could trade Bogut for a top ten pick, and then allow Mo to go in free agency. That's crazy talk, but interesting to think about. Read Mr. Smith's wisdom here:
[Editor's Note: Not even Doc has the balls to make a lottery projection - you are fearless Scott]
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Training Camp blog
Packernews.com has one of their own, and it's free:
http://www.packersnews.com/includes/newspaper/blogs/insider/index.shtml
Breaking news: Brett Favre Demands Trade
GREEN BAY—Three-time MVP and undisputed future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre, disappointed with the Packers' refusal to aggressively pursue receiver Randy Moss and frustrated with his team's apparent indifference to making immediate improvements on offense, is demanding a trade to the team he feels will give him the best shot at winning a last Super Bowl ring before his retirement: the 1996 Green Bay Packers.
Badger Football

The Badgers are going to start the season ranked quite high. They were good last year and lost only a hand full of starters. Of course, they include John Stocco, Joe Thomas and Joe Stellmacher. Regardless, they should have a great team defense and three legitimate running options (don't write off PT for John Clay, above). What people are forgetting, however, is that the Badgers have a pretty consistent record relating to pre-season expectations.
[Editor's note: Corrected, thanks...]
Preseason Ranking -> Final Ranking (AP)
2006: unranked -> 7th.
2005: unranked -> 15th.
2004: 21st -> 17th.
2003: 21st -> unranked
2002: 25th -> unranked
2001: 22nd -> unranked
2000: 4th -> 23rd
1999: 10th -> 4th
1998: 20th -> 6th
1997: 24th -> unranked
1996: unranked -> unranked
1995: 20th -> unranked
1994: 10th -> unranked
1993: unranked -> 6th
Almost every season they begin unranked, they finish above expectations. Almost every season they begin with high expectations, they fail to meet them.
I have been a able to dig up a few early 2007 preseason rankings and they all put the Badgers around 5-15. Historically, that does not bode well for UW.
Friday, May 18, 2007
Live Spurs v. Suns Thoughts

1st Quarter - The first quarter of an NBA game can be largely ignored...as I did when I fast forwarded through it on my Tivo
2nd Quarter -
8:40 - Tony Parker, Steve Nash - man are they hard to keep out of the lane. The difference is that Tony Parker looks to finish more with his array of tear drops while Nash uses the drive to find the open man (often dribbling under the baseline).
Also, both teams are really getting down to the floor to get the ball. Should be a good game.
6:50 - James Jones 3/3 behind the arc with 2 in a row. He's got to love playing with Nash.
5:14 - I noticed this the other night as well: Off the pick-and-roll or the high screen, it seems that Nash sometimes leans in on 3's. Those haven't tended to go in, as would be expected.
4:28 -Duncan has 6 blocks right now. The 1-2 punch of him and Tony Parker is really tearing up the Suns.
3:37 - Amare CANNOT guard Duncan. He appears to be only concerned with fouls.
2:59 - Ridiculous pass by Nash to a thunderous dunk by Amare. Every Suns player should give a portion of their next contract to the charity of Nash's choice because he makes life sooo easy for the other guys. It actually makes you wonder how you can evaluate a guy like Amare in a potential trade if he ever became available because his greatest skill (finishing with dunks near the basket, not in a back to the basket post position) is highly dependent upon a PG like Nash.
1:41 - Just watched Duncan dominate some more. Made me want to watch Oden guard Duncan. He could learn so much from watching Duncan on his way to being a dominate post defender.
0:00 - SA up two at half. Should be a close game. No prediction yet on the winner.
3rd Quarter
8:46 - Duncan is up to 8 blocks. That's not right. Triple Double?
6:21 - There is no question in my mind that these are the best two teams in the NBA (removing Dallas based on their playoff performance). Detroit might win or might make the finals close (or Cleveland, I guess), but that doesn't change the fact that these two are the best.
5:37 - Maybe I am underestimating Amare a little bit - he's pretty damn good. My point from above was that his best skill is as a finisher which is largely dependent upon having a good PG.
4:56 - Ginobili is breaking this game open with a few 3's (SA up 8). Must be nice to watch Parker and Duncan do all the heavy lifting and then hit a few 3's and be a hero.
During commercials I am checking out some more Ronald Jenkees clips. This cat is awesome!
3:33 - I love how the Suns instinctively turn and sprint when they grab a rebound (SA up 11, btw). It would be a real shame if this doesn't go to a game 7 (for the shear entertainment value). This game is great.
:54 - Bowen with a cold 3 to put SA up 13. SA's 2nd team is really taking care of the Suns 2nd team. Raja Bell is the only guy doing anything offensively the past few minutes for the PHX, which is interesting with Marion in the game.
0:00 - Bruce Bowen and Jacque Vaughn are putting this game out of reach. Who would have thought?
PHX defintely should look into another PG in the draft or via trade to run the 2nd team and eventually take over for Nash. The way they are constructed is so dependent upon the PG creating shots for everyone else that when Nash is out of the game they look lost. Barbosa is good, but he is barely a PG.
4th Quarter
11:11 - The ESPN guys just had a mini-conversation about the word "spurtability." I wonder if their producer cut them off in their headsets.
10:52 - This is not nearly the best Barbosa has played. When the Suns have needed him, he has not come through.
10:30 - Ginobili just flopped a 3 pointer into a potential 4 point play. This was all started by Oberto "blowing by" Amare. Oberto...maybe I was right about Amare. (SA up 18 - game over).
9:06 - Game Over. I just don't see how any team is going to be able to beat these guys. Parker did it in the first quarter, Duncan in the 2nd and early 3rd and scrubs /Ginobili are doing it in the 4th. And they ALL play good D.
BLOG OVER.
OK - Maybe not....
3:55 - Barbosa just had a nasty layup and then a Nash long 2 and its 9...
Barbosa would be a deep bench player on the Pistons. He can hit 3's (at least on nights other than tonight) and he can run like a gazelle, half of which wouldn't be utilized much by Det.
2:30 - Only 7 points. Should be less. PHX keeps getting the stops but they are not finishing.
1:53 - Every once in a while they goto "coach" who is Van Gundy who was fired yesterday. I wonder how much he gets paid to sit there and watch the game, occasionally saying something...
1:15 - Duncan deuce and a strip of Nash in the lane - this game is officially over.
Really good game except early in the 4th where the Suns forgot how to score. Too bad this couldn't have been closer or that the Suns didn't win on Wed to make this force game 7. Oh well...
Ruben Patterson

From JSOnline.com:
A misdemeanor warrant was issued earlier this week after he failed to register as a convicted sex offender when he moved into a new house in the Cincinnati suburb of Indian Hill.
Patterson, who surrendered late Tuesday, was ordered to make a future court appearance. He faces a misdemeanor complaint that carries a possible six-month jail term.
Ohio law enforcement officials became aware of Patterson's failure to register in that state after a complaint about a party at his house on May 5, authorities said.
A certified letter was sent to Patterson's house on May 8, according to published reports, and when he did not respond within the required five days, a warrant was issued for his arrest.
In November of last year, Patterson purchased a $3.4 million house in Hamilton County but failed to register his new address with the sheriff's department.
Patterson is required to register under Ohio law, due to a sentencing in May 2001 in the state of Washington.
Ouch for Patterson. However, is it possible this is good for the Bucks?
Here is my thought process: When the Bucks got Patterson, they knew he was a sex offender. He stayed clean while he was a Buck. Failing to register as a sex offender, in my opinion, does not make one a trouble maker (that might be the leap that is too far for some, but...). He is an unrestricted free agent. This may cause him to get less offers or to have the offers go down, leaving him more of a chance of returning to the Bucks for a reasonable sum of money. I think this is a good thing because he was very good last year and is exactly the kind of tough player the team needs.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
I don't care about Paul Shirley.

Honestly, does anyone?
[Chris Swoboda's Note: Check out his original claim to fame and tell me it's not funny]
NFL Stupidity: Brandon Jackson BARRED from minicamp

"I feel like I need to learn the plays so I can come back and try to win a starting job in the fall," Jackson said. "I've only had four or five practices with the veterans, but my agent told me the collective bargaining agreement couldn't let me go to the minicamp."
Honest Favre, Moss and Ted Thompson Discussion


Ted Thompson (left) is a man who has a stated goal and method of doing business that he believes in and sticks to. Had Favre retired after the first year TT was GM as everyone thought he might, Ted Thompson would be the perfect man for the job. He is passive and allows the draft to come to him. He recognizes that a lot of free agents do not produce. His strategy is great for rebuilding a team. Chances are that this was part of the reason why he was hired in the first place.
Unfortunately for everyone involved, the team guessed wrong and Favre came back causing the situation to be no longer correctly aligned. The Packers had a GM who was competent in rebuilding and a QB who was looking for a GM who could give short term fixes for immediate gratification.
So who is to blame?
Ted Thompson?
Brett Favre?
Bob Harlan (right)?
Let's look at each of them to see where the blame lies:
Ted Thompson - Was hired with the intent of rebuilding a Packer's team that had salary cap issues and was slightly above mediocre the previous few years. Had a plan for rebuilding and the way he was going to run the team that was likely shared with Harlan at his hiring. Has stubbornly held to that plan.
I cannot assign much blame in his direction. He is doing what he was hired to do. Guys don't get a lot of opportunities to run teams and they are entitled to it the way they think is best. Gets unfair labels about being passive in the draft and being cheap in free agency. Seems reasonable to me that he would want to not spend much money after dropping quite a bit of scratch last season (Woodson, Pickett) and an absence of quality free agents. As far as the draft, he is certainly better than Sherman.
Brett Favre - In his twilight years. Still an above average QB. May have mislead the team about his longterm intentions.
Seems to me that he cannot be blamed for wanting the team to add players that can help him now as opposed to helping the team in 3 years.
Bob Harlan - Hired Ted Thompson.
He incorrectly gambled that Favre would leave and that he should hire a GM to rebuild the team. Should have hired a more aggressive, win now GM type to give the Packers a chance to take advantage of Favre's remaining years.
I think a lot of the blame has to go on the original hiring of Ted Thompson by Bob Harlan. Favre may also be to blame if he led Harlan to believe he wouldn't be around much longer, validating Bob's hiring of TT. It is too easy to blame Ted Thompson for doing exactly what he was hired to do. When he drafts guys like Justin Harrell, he is taking a less sexy player. If Harrell stands in the middle and plugs the holes which would be bored through us by Matt Birk, Steve Hutchinson and Bryant McKinnie for Chester Taylor/Adrian Peterson, then the pick is just as good as an offensive weapon.
Yet Another Version of the Moss Saga
TUESDAY, May 15, 2007, 9:46 p.m.
Final 4?
Randy Moss isn’t a Green Bay Packer. The majority of us found out that fact on day two of the NFL Draft. Brett Favre and Bus Cook apparently found out a week to ten days earlier. According to a source, close to both the team and Brett, Bus Cook was informed of the Packers lack of interest in acquiring Moss prior to the draft. Cook then informed Favre of Ted Thompson’s choice not to pursue the controversial wide receiver. Upset at the lack of interest in bolstering the offense, but unwilling to believe that the Packers wouldn’t at the very least make a “play” for Moss, Favre decided to keep his feelings confined to those around him until draft day. After the announcement was made that indeed Moss was a Patriot and that it only took a 4th round draft pick to garner the services of the veteran receiver, Favre spouted to Cook that he ”wanted out”. He wanted to be traded to a team that would give him the opportunity to be a serious post-season contender. Cook contacted Thompson and Brett’s displeasure was conveyed to the Packers GM.
It took Mike McCarthy to calm the waters, so to speak. McCarthy, after a week of trying to contact Favre, finally received a return phone call from the Packers signal caller. Favre told McCarthy that he’d be a man of his word and return to the Green Bay Packers. Favre admitted that he really didn’t want to part company with the storied franchise but that he’s more than frustrated with the team for not supplying him with the offensive talent to give him another legitimate shot at an NFC title.
Favre’s demands and discontent leaked to the media and that’s when the spin went into effect. In a statement released on the Packers website Favre stated, “I was frustrated a couple weeks back when Randy Moss was traded to New England. I never wanted to be traded and I don't want to be traded. I want to be in Green Bay. I want to finish my career as a Packer. Sometimes when I get frustrated I let my emotions get the better of me. As I said in February when I announced that I was coming back, I am excited about the young talent on our team and the improvements we're going to see from one year to the next. I really enjoy the young guys I'm playing with. I'm working hard down in Mississippi right now, rehabbing, and I plan to be in the best shape of my life. I look forward to playing with this team and seeing what we can do. I think we can be pretty good.”
According to 2 separate sources, their opinion is that if Favre plays well this season (2007) then he’ll return for another year but it will NOT be with the Green Bay Packers. If Favre doesn’t play up to his own expectations, he’ll walk away from the game, to his tractor in Hattiesburg and ultimately to that anticipated day when he slips on that gold jacket and unveils his bronze bust on the historic stage in Canton.
Enjoy this year Packers fans, this appears to truly be Favre’s last hurrah. Question, if the Packers finish the 2007 campaign 11-5 and play deep in to January, would that convince #4 to don the green and gold once again? We’ll have to wait and see.
Note: Lance Allan of Today’s TMJ4 is reporting that a spokesman for the Packers has stated that the upcoming mini camp is mandatory and that anyone not in attendance is subject to fine. As we all know, Brett has stated that he will NOT be attending the mini camp this weekend. He’s rehabbing his surgically repaired ankle and he’ll be attending the high school graduation of his oldest daughter.
Brewers

From Jayson Stark's rumblin stumblin grumblin's
The Maddux who has had the biggest impact on the National League in 2007 might not be Greg. It could be his big brother Mike, who has turned into one of the best pitching coaches in the biz in Milwaukee.
There are plenty of examples of pitchers Maddux has turned around. But how about his three closers -- Dan Kolb (signed after getting released by Texas), Derrick Turnbow (a waiver claim) and Francisco Cordero (who had a 7.50 ERA last year this time in Texas).
"Let's just say it's not by accident these three guys all developed into All-Star closers," said manager Ned Yost. Maddux told Rumblings he doesn't want any accolades. "I'll take the blame," he said. "Let them [the pitchers] get the credit." Sorry. He gets it anyway.
Maddux built back Cordero's psyche and expanded his repertoire. He encouraged Turnbow to go home last winter, after a brutal year, and "hit the eraser button." And now he reminds The Chief constantly to slow down and "control the pace of the game." And how did Maddux figure out the secret to controlling that pace? By doing such a lousy job of it during his own career, he said. "That's how I learned," he laughed. "By looking back on my playing days and figuring out all the things I wish I'd done different."
• While everybody was fixating on J.J. Hardy's home run total, we might have missed his most incredible stat of all. He has been so locked in, 57 percent of his swings have put the ball in play this year. That's the fourth-best percentage in the NL. And no one else in the top 10 has hit more than two homers. "I can't tell you how badly I missed on J.J. Hardy as an offensive player," said one executive who scouted Hardy in high school. "I loved his hands in the field. He had an unbelievable arm. But I thought there was no way his bat would work at all. Too much swinging and missing." Hey, not anymore.
That is amazing!